Today, I carefully read Professor Liang Wannian’s several conditions for ending the pandemic, and made the following interpretation
Professor Liang Wannian:① the virus mutation is becoming weaker and weaker, its pathogenicity and transmission are becoming weaker and weaker, and its harm to human health and life is becoming smaller and smaller.
Interpretation of Zhang style: Most of them have reached. The virus mutation is becoming weaker and weaker, its pathogenicity is becoming weaker and weaker, and its harm to human health and life is becoming smaller and smaller.
But there is one thing that is difficult to achieve at present:that is, the pathogenicity of the virus is weakened, and the transmission rate is also weakened. This is difficult to achieve. Because as the pathogenicity of the virus weakens, the transmission rate often increases. This is the Ba we have observed so far 1, ba.2, and ba 5. So it seems that unless there is an effective vaccine to prevent the disease, it is impossible to achieve this goal in a short time (see article 2:this goal can be achieved if 40-50%of the enhanced needle of mRNA vaccine is used to protect against the disease)
Professor Liang Wannian:② vaccines are more effective, not only to prevent severe illness and death, but also to prevent infection. The ability to prevent severe illness and death is higher.
Zhang styleunscramble：At present, vaccines can prevent severe illness and death, but the protection rate against infection is not high. At present, the protection rate against infection after mRNA enhancement is 40-50%, and the protection rate of inactivated vaccine is quite low. Therefore, it takes a long time to develop specific vaccines against epidemic strains to prevent infection. At present, the protection of influenza vaccine against influenza is only 40-50%. Therefore, if the protection rate is acceptable, we should pay close attention to the research of domestic mRNA vaccine and import foreign mRNA vaccine to protect the elderly and high-risk groups first.
Professor Liang Wannian ③ has specific drugs. In addition to the existing effective drugs, there may be more effective drugs, even specific drugs, which can block the disease at an early stage.
Zhang styleunscramble： This condition has been basically met abroad. Some oral and preventive drugs have also been imported in China. But if we wait for domestic products, we will wait a long time.
Professor Liang Wannian:④ the epidemic situation in other countries in the world is also decreasing, and the pressure of our external defense input is becoming smaller, etc.
Zhang styleunscramble：At present, due to the high incidence rate of Omicron variant, the disease severity rate and mortality rate are relatively low. The next peak may be in autumn, which may be different varieties. Now the possibility is that the new crown will be popular in the world every year. If you want to wait for the disease to reduce abroad, it may take quite a long time.
Summary:It seems that the basic goal is to target covid-19, rather than severe illness and death, so it is unlikely that China will end the epidemic in the short term. I hope domestic friends will persevere and work hard.
But if we can recognize the current new crown Omicron ba With the characteristics of low pathogenicity and low mortality, the control target of dynamic zeroing has been transformed from the incidence to the reduction of severe illness and death. It should be said that the basic conditions have been met at present, only due to Dongfeng.
Also today (July 18), 81 year old Fauci, an American epidemiologist, director of the National Institute of allergy and infectious diseases (NIAID) and the president’s chief medical adviser, accepted an exclusive interview with American media”politico”. In addition to talking about his more than 50 years of public service career, he also pointed out that the United States has an inappropriate attitude towards the epidemic and hopes to improve the current situation that politics is superior to epidemic prevention. Speaking of retirement, fouche said that he would retire before the end of Biden’s term of office in 2024.”If someone says that he will retire until there is no new crown stream, then I may live until I am 105 years old. I think everyone should learn to coexist with this virus.” Finally, a little humor, please don’t take it seriously:according to Dr. Fauci’s”prediction”, the covid-19 epidemic is over,”24 years” is enough, not”ten thousand years”.